Now that we’ve given the June Top 25 Facebook list time to breathe, it’s time to start looking at the traffic patterns of the games that appeared.
Counting down from No. 25 on the list, we examine the behavior of six or seven games each week. When we do this, we look at a game’s daily active users — as that’s the best way to measure an app’s core audience — and predict how these traffic changes will affect a title’s position on the next month’s Top 25 list.
For the first week of June, we’ll examine No. 25 through No. 19.
Happy Elements’s Chinese language aquarium sim 開心水族箱 (“Aquarium Open Heart Box”) managed to stay on our list, although it dropped five spots from May because its traffic declined by 200,000 DAU to 1.3 million. The 2009 game has bounced between 1.3 million and 1.6 million DAU, but the erratic nature of these changes makes it difficult to predict if 開心水族箱 will gain enough traffic to move it up the chart in July. If the game stays at 1.3 million DAU, this may not be enough to keep it on our chart next month, depending on minimum DAU requirements.
T23. DoubleDown Casino
DoubleDown Interactive’s Doubledown Casino is up from last month’s 1.3 million DAU to 1.4 million. The game has been holding steady around 1.3 million DAU since December 2011, and peaked at 1.5 million in March. DoubleDown Casino’s growth slowed down after DoubleDown Interactive was acquired by International Game Technology in January; if traffic doesn’t begin to significantly improve and minimum DAU increases, it’s possible the game might be knocked off June’s list.
T23. Empires & Allies
Zynga’s Empires & Allies is staying at 1.3 million DAU, but it seems like only a matter of time before the game’s traffic takes another hit. Over the past month, the title has dropped by 200,000 DAU from 1.5 million to 1.3 million, in keeping with the average traffic loss since January. When the game launched a year ago, it quickly peaked at 7.7 million DAU and began losing users shortly after. If the traffic pattern holds true, Empires & Allies probably won’t appear on July’s Top 25 list.
22. Top Eleven – Be a Football Manager
Nordeus’s Top Eleven – Be a Football Manager continues its steady growth, jumping up another 100,000 DAU to hit a new peak of 1.5 million DAU. Since the game launched in May 2010, it’s been steadily gaining traffic, but the numbers began to dramatically increase in January. Since then, Top Eleven has gone from 1 million DAU to its current level; these increases were coming at a rate of approximately 100,000 DAU every six weeks, but the timetable looks to be speeding up as of late. If the game sees another gain before the end of June, it’s entirely possible it’ll move up a few spots for the July Top 25 list.
21. Marvel: Avengers Alliance
Disney Playdom’s Marvel: Avengers Alliance climbed four places from its May Top 25 debut, no doubt helped by the record-breaking success of “The Avengers” movie. Now that “The Avengers” isn’t quite dominating the box office any more, growth seems to be slowing down and the game’s actually down from its 1.6 million DAU peak to 1.5 million. This could be a temporary drop, though, as next month will see “The Amazing Spider-Man” hit theaters. No plans have been announced for Marvel: Avengers Alliance to include tie-in content to the upcoming film, but Spider-Man is a playable character in the game. This will likely generate a fair amount of user interest. Marvel: Avengers Alliance could go either way now, but if “The Amazing Spider-Man” does manage to increase traffic then the game will probably move up a few spots next month.
20. Bubble Island
Wooga’s Bubble Island looks like it’s starting to recover from last month’s traffic drop, having gone from 1.7 million DAU to 1.8 million. Launched in 2010, Bubble Island peaked in March with 2.8 million DAU but began a steep traffic slide afterwards for no obvious reason. The game seemed stable for most of May at 2 million DAU before suddenly dropping towards the end of the month. This is another title that could go either way next month. If Bubble Island is able to continue regaining its lost traffic it may bounce back up a couple of spots, but if it drops further it will likely be in the bottom five games on July’s list.
19. Zynga Bingo
Zynga Bingo launched on Facebook at the end of May and shot up the charts enough to debut on our Top 25 list. After jumping up this week to 2.2 million DAU, the game has returned to 1.8 million. It’s too early to discern a traffic pattern for Zynga Bingo, but the developer’s games tend to reach a spot within the top 15 titles on Facebook, and social casino games have a habit of maintaining traffic longer than arcade titles on the social network. Expect Zynga Bingo to jump up by at least a few more spots next month.
All data in this post comes from our traffic tracking service, AppData. Stay tuned for next week’s continuation of our Top 25 gainers and losers, when we look at No. 18 through No. 13 on the list.